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Seasonal Business Inventory Management: Open, Peak, Close, and Dormant Cycles

July 11, 2026

Seasonal Business Inventory Management: Open, Peak, Close, and Dormant Cycles

Seasonal Business Inventory Management: Open, Peak, Close, and Dormant Cycles

Seasonal businesses operate in four distinct inventory phases. Most operators open in a rush and close in exhaustion. Inventory gets ignored in both directions. A conservative opening PAR, peak velocity adjustment, controlled close-out, and monthly dormant check prevent the cash waste that compounds season over season.

Phase 1: Opening (Weeks 1-2)

Order conservatively. You can always reorder. You cannot un-spoil. Use the Opening PAR Formula: (Estimated Daily Usage x 14 Days) + 15% Safety Stock. Order this quantity. Not more.

Do a full baseline count on day one before you open. This is your reference point for the entire season. Every variance from this point is measurable.

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Phase 2: Peak (Weeks 3 through close-minus-3)

Adjust PAR levels every two weeks using rolling averages, not opening guesses. Week 3 PAR = (Week 1 usage + Week 2 usage) / 2 x Lead Time + Safety Stock. Never order based on gut feel during peak. Always order based on actual burn data.

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Phase 3: Close-Out (Final 3 weeks)

Stop all new orders 2 weeks before close unless critically low. Mark down perishables with under 30 days of remaining life. Donate anything within 7 days. Run your final full count 3 days before close. This becomes your opening baseline next season for items you plan to carry over.

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Phase 4: Dormant Storage

Check stored inventory monthly during dormant period. Pests. Moisture. Temperature damage. Take photos. Log any losses. Calculate your carryover rate: Usable Closing Inventory / Opening Inventory x 100. Target over 90%.

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When Manual Tracking Breaks Down

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FAQ

Q: When should I do my first reorder of the season?
A: When on-hand drops to PAR level. Not before. Resist the temptation to over-order in week one because "the season is starting."

Q: How do I handle items I want to carry over?
A: Non-perishables with over 12 months shelf life are safe to carry. Perishables never carry over. Seasonal equipment (tarps, heaters) checks and stores at close.

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